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Photo: Neweditorpk
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Pakistan T20I Tri-Series · 2025/26 · Men
22 Nov 2025 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 22%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (Pakistan: 67% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhannot out 6 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 80* | 45 | 6 | 5 | 177.78 |
| Saim Ayubstumped · Kusal Mendis · Dasun Shanaka 4 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dasun Shanaka | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 111.11 |
0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 16 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 72.73 |
| Salman Ali Aghalbw · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dushmantha Chameera | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| not out |
| 5* |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.3 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 11.20 | 6 | 0 |
| 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Vijayakanth Viyaskanth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-47 (Saim Ayub, 5.0) · 2-116 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 13.4) · 3-116 (Salman Ali Agha, 13.5)
Recorded target: 129 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 18 | 24/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 13 | 42/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 56/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 58/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 63/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 68/1 |
| 11 | 15 | 83/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 92/1 |
| 13 | 15 | 107/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 117/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 122/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 131/3 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.