Chittagong KingsversusDurbar Rajshahi

3 Jan 2025 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chittagong Kings won by 105 runs

Chittagong Kings20.0 overs219/5 Durbar Rajshahi17.1 overs114/10 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chittagong Kings started on 50%; Chittagong Kings batted first.

Chittagong Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Durbar Rajshahi is the rest

Chittagong Kings's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Durbar Rajshahi: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Taskin Ahmed to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Durbar Rajshahi up from 49% to 63%.
3.2: Hasan Murad to Usman Khan, six by Usman Khan. Chittagong Kings up from 47% to 53%.
5.2: Shafiul Islam to G Clark, six by G Clark. Chittagong Kings up from 69% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chittagong Kings219/5 Durbar Rajshahi114/10

Innings 1