West IndiesversusAustralia

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 37 runs

West Indies20.0 overs220/6 Australia20.0 overs183/5 Perth Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

28%West Indies72%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,627 vs 1,531 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and West Indies won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 27%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 89%).

Biggest swings

7.5: A Zampa to RL Chase, RL Chase out. Australia up from 66% to 75%.
8.4: AM Hardie to R Powell, R Powell out. Australia up from 73% to 83%.
2nd inns 6.3: AJ Hosein to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. West Indies up from 62% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies220/6 Australia183/5

Innings 2

Australia

183/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mitchell Marshcaught · Jason Holder · Akeal Hosein 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jason Holder · b Akeal Hosein	17	13	2	1	130.77
David Warnercaught · Andre Russell · Roston Chase 9 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Andre Russell · b Roston Chase	81	49	9	3	165.31
Aaron Hardiebowled · Romario Shepherd 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Romario Shepherd	16	16	2	0	100.00
Josh Ingliscaught and bowled · Roston Chase 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Roston Chase	1

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	0	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	2	1
Andre Russell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	3	0
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	0	0
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	5	11/0
3	15	26/0
4	11	37/0
5	10	47/0
6	14	61/0
7	11	72/1
8	7	79/1
9	10	89/1
10	9	98/1
11	12	110/1
12	3	113/1
13	3	116/2
14	1	117/4
15	8	125/4
16	2	127/4
17	19	146/4
18	10	156/5
19	15	171/5
20	12	183/5

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