CanadaversusNetherlands

26 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Canada won by 8 runs

Canada20.0 overs132/9 Netherlands20.0 overs124/8 Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd, Utrecht ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

21%Canada79%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Canada (1,526 vs 1,431 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 4 and Canada won 0
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canada started on 19%; Canada batted first.

Canada’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Canada's chances ranged from 2% to 99% during the match (Netherlands: 1% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.3: Saad Bin Zafar to SA Edwards, SA Edwards out. Canada up from 22% to 38%.
2nd inns 12.3: Parveen Kumar to ZB Lion-Cachet, ZB Lion-Cachet out. Canada up from 40% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.1: Kaleem Sana to R Klein, R Klein out. Canada up from 82% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Canada132/9 Netherlands124/8

Innings 1

Canada

132/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Canada batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aaron Johnsoncaught · Brandon Glover · Kyle Klein 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brandon Glover · b Kyle Klein	0	2	0	0	0.00
Rayyan Pathanbowled · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Paul van Meekeren	0	2	0	0	0.00
Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Kyle Klein · Paul van Meekeren 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kyle Klein · b Paul van Meekeren	13	16	2	0	81.25
Harsh Thakerbowled · Kyle Klein 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kyle Klein	10	13	2	0	76.92
Shreyas Movvacaught · Noah Croes · Vikramjit Singh 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Noah Croes · b Vikramjit Singh	33	26	3	1	126.92

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kyle Klein1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	3	5.50	0
Paul van Meekeren1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	29	3	7.25	0
Daniel Doram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	2	3.25	0
Brandon Glover0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	24	0	12.00	7
Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	0	6.33	0
Vikramjit Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	1	7.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	0	0/2
3	4	4/2
4	6	10/2
5	5	15/3
6	8	23/4
7	3	26/4
8	8	34/4
9	1	35/6
10	17	52/6
11	4	56/6
12	5	61/6
13	7	68/6
14	5	73/6
15	13	86/6
16	9	95/6
17	6	101/6
18	3	104/7
19	13	117/8
20	15	132/9

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