St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusAntigua and Barbuda Falcons

20 Aug 2026 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 3 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs187/6 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons19.3 overs191/7 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 40%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Antigua and Barbuda Falcons is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 5% to 88% during the match (Antigua and Barbuda Falcons: 12% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: JO Holder to Shadab Khan, six by Shadab Khan. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 37% to 54%.
2nd inns 16.5: JO Holder to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 46% to 64%.
2nd inns 19.2: MD Shanaka to MM Ali, four by MM Ali. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 62% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots187/6 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons191/7

Innings 1