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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
8 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bhutan started on 72%; Bhutan batted first.
Bhutan's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (Mongolia: 0% to 36%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Od Lutbayarbowled · Karma Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Karma Dorji | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gandemberel Ganboldbowled · Tashi Phuntsho 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tashi Phuntsho | 13 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 118.18 |
| Namsrai Bat-yalaltcaught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · Tashi Phuntsho 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · b Tashi Phuntsho | 13 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 61.90 |
| Sodbileg Gantulgabowled · Tashi Dorji 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Tashi Dorji | 23 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 121.05 |
| Luwsanzundui Erdenebulgancaught · Tenjin Rabgey · Sonam Yeshey 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tenjin Rabgey · b Sonam Yeshey | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
| Bilegdemberel Munkhdelgercaught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · Tashi Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · b Tashi Dorji |
| 0 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Temuulen Amarmendcaught · Tenjin Rabgey · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tenjin Rabgey · b Sonam Yeshey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Bayarjargal Batbayrnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Bayanbuu Jargaltuyacaught · Karma Dorji · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karma Dorji · b Sonam Yeshey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zoljavkhlan Shurentsetsegcaught · T Chopel · Tashi Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Chopel · b Tashi Dorji | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tumursukh Turmunkhlbw · Tashi Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tashi Dorji | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karma Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashi Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Od Lutbayar, 0.1) · 2-26 (Gandemberel Ganbold, 4.3) · 3-44 (Namsrai Bat-yalalt, 7.0) · 4-63 (Sodbileg Gantulga, 10.4) · 5-63 (Luwsanzundui Erdenebulgan, 11.2) · 6-63 (Temuulen Amarmend, 11.4) · 7-65 (Bilegdemberel Munkhdelger, 13.0) · 8-66 (Bayanbuu Jargaltuya, 13.2) · 9-67 (Zoljavkhlan Shurentsetseg, 14.5) · 10-67 (Tumursukh Turmunkh, 15.0)
Recorded target: 204 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 11 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 34/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 44/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 45/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 54/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 59/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 63/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 64/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 65/7 |
| 14 | 1 | 66/8 |
| 15 | 1 | 67/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.