BermudaversusCayman Islands

Bermuda more likely to win

Why

• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 9 and Cayman Islands won 1
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Cayman Islands (1,568 vs 1,530 on our results rating)
• Cayman Islands are playing at home in the Cayman Islands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Bermuda started on 63%; Bermuda batted first.

Bermuda's chances ranged from 3% to 66% during the match (Cayman Islands: 34% to 97%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 15.4: D Sabir to D Johnson, D Johnson out. Bermuda up from 14% to 30%.
2. 2nd inns 16.6: DL Brangman to ROC Dunka, ROC Dunka out. Bermuda up from 12% to 28%.
3. 2nd inns 17.2: D Sabir to R Edwards, four by R Edwards. Cayman Islands up from 68% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.