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England tour of Pakistan · 2024/25 · Men
15 Oct 2024 · Test
Multan Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abdullah Shafiquebowled · Jack Leach1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jack Leach | 7 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Ben Stokes · Matthew Potts 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Stokes · b Matthew Potts | 77 | 160 | 7 | 0 | 48.13 |
 Shan Masoodcaught · Zak Crawley · Jack Leach0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Jack Leach | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Kamran Ghulambowled · Shoaib Bashir 11 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shoaib Bashir |
| 118 |
| 224 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 52.68 |
 Saud Shakeelcaught · Jamie Smith · Brydon Carse1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Brydon Carse | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Mohammad Rizwancaught · Jamie Smith · Brydon Carse5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Brydon Carse | 41 | 97 | 5 | 0 | 42.27 |
|---|
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Jamie Smith · Matthew Potts 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Matthew Potts | 31 | 53 | 5 | 0 | 58.49 |
|---|
| Aamer Jamalbowled · Brydon Carse 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brydon Carse | 37 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 53.62 |
|---|
| Sajid Khancaught · Joe Root · Jack Leach 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Jack Leach | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Nauman Alicaught · Brydon Carse · Jack Leach 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Jack Leach | 32 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 52.46 |
|---|
| RajaZahidnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 21 | 0 | 0 | 9.52 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthew Potts9 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 26.0 | 9 | 66 | 2 | 2.54 | 0 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse6 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls | 20.0 | 6 | 50 | 3 | 2.50 | 3 | 2 |
 Jack Leach2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 38.3 | 2 | 114 | 4 | 2.96 | 0 | 0 |
| Shoaib Bashir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 28.0 | 1 | 85 | 1 | 3.04 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Abdullah Shafique, 7.3) · 2-19 (Shan Masood, 9.4) · 3-168 (Saim Ayub, 56.0) · 4-178 (Saud Shakeel, 60.5) · 5-243 (Kamran Ghulam, 84.2) · 6-264 (Mohammad Rizwan, 93.0) · 7-302 (Salman Ali Agha, 101.0) · 8-309 (Sajid Khan, 103.5) · 9-358 (Aamer Jamal, 117.1) · 10-366 (Nauman Ali, 123.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 10/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 15/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 15/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 22/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 23/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 37/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 42/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 44/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 46/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 55/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 61/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 78/2 |
| 28 | 0 | 78/2 |
| 29 | 1 | 79/2 |
| 30 | 0 | 79/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 84/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 85/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 90/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 95/2 |
| 35 | 2 | 97/2 |
| 36 | 1 | 98/2 |
| 37 | 1 | 99/2 |
| 38 | 1 | 100/2 |
| 39 | 6 | 106/2 |
| 40 | 4 | 110/2 |
| 41 | 2 | 112/2 |
| 42 | 2 | 114/2 |
| 43 | 1 | 115/2 |
| 44 | 5 | 120/2 |
| 45 | 5 | 125/2 |
| 46 | 2 | 127/2 |
| 47 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 48 | 7 | 138/2 |
| 49 | 6 | 144/2 |
| 50 | 1 | 145/2 |
| 51 | 7 | 152/2 |
| 52 | 10 | 162/2 |
| 53 | 2 | 164/2 |
| 54 | 3 | 167/2 |
| 55 | 1 | 168/2 |
| 56 | 0 | 168/3 |
| 57 | 5 | 173/3 |
| 58 | 0 | 173/3 |
| 59 | 0 | 173/3 |
| 60 | 4 | 177/3 |
| 61 | 1 | 178/4 |
| 62 | 0 | 178/4 |
| 63 | 0 | 178/4 |
| 64 | 1 | 179/4 |
| 65 | 3 | 182/4 |
| 66 | 8 | 190/4 |
| 67 | 0 | 190/4 |
| 68 | 7 | 197/4 |
| 69 | 3 | 200/4 |
| 70 | 3 | 203/4 |
| 71 | 4 | 207/4 |
| 72 | 1 | 208/4 |
| 73 | 0 | 208/4 |
| 74 | 6 | 214/4 |
| 75 | 9 | 223/4 |
| 76 | 1 | 224/4 |
| 77 | 1 | 225/4 |
| 78 | 1 | 226/4 |
| 79 | 2 | 228/4 |
| 80 | 7 | 235/4 |
| 81 | 4 | 239/4 |
| 82 | 0 | 239/4 |
| 83 | 1 | 240/4 |
| 84 | 3 | 243/4 |
| 85 | 2 | 245/5 |
| 86 | 4 | 249/5 |
| 87 | 3 | 252/5 |
| 88 | 2 | 254/5 |
| 89 | 1 | 255/5 |
| 90 | 4 | 259/5 |
| 91 | 0 | 259/5 |
| 92 | 4 | 263/5 |
| 93 | 1 | 264/6 |
| 94 | 4 | 268/6 |
| 95 | 2 | 270/6 |
| 96 | 3 | 273/6 |
| 97 | 2 | 275/6 |
| 98 | 1 | 276/6 |
| 99 | 16 | 292/6 |
| 100 | 2 | 294/6 |
| 101 | 8 | 302/7 |
| 102 | 2 | 304/7 |
| 103 | 5 | 309/7 |
| 104 | 0 | 309/8 |
| 105 | 8 | 317/8 |
| 106 | 1 | 318/8 |
| 107 | 0 | 318/8 |
| 108 | 4 | 322/8 |
| 109 | 6 | 328/8 |
| 110 | 1 | 329/8 |
| 111 | 2 | 331/8 |
| 112 | 3 | 334/8 |
| 113 | 6 | 340/8 |
| 114 | 5 | 345/8 |
| 115 | 4 | 349/8 |
| 116 | 8 | 357/8 |
| 117 | 1 | 358/8 |
| 118 | 2 | 360/9 |
| 119 | 0 | 360/9 |
| 120 | 3 | 363/9 |
| 121 | 0 | 363/9 |
| 122 | 2 | 365/9 |
| 123 | 1 | 366/9 |
| 124 | 0 | 366/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jack Leach: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shan Masood: Balochistan Social News · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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