OmanversusBahrain

12 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 3 runs

Oman20.0 overs177/3 Bahrain20.0 overs174/8 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

59%Oman41%Bahrain

Why

Oman are playing at home in Oman
On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Bahrain (1,579 vs 1,552 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 56%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 44% to 95% during the match (Bahrain: 6% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.4: Bilal Khan to Rizwan Butt, Rizwan Butt out. Oman up from 46% to 66%.
2nd inns 19.1: Bilal Khan to Ahmer Bin Nisar, four by Ahmer Bin Nisar. Bahrain up from 22% to 47%.
2nd inns 19.6: Bilal Khan to Ahmer Bin Nisar, 1 run to Ahmer Bin Nisar. Oman up from 79% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman177/3 Bahrain174/8

Innings 2

Bahrain

174/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Umer Imtiazcaught · Rafiullah · Bilal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rafiullah · b Bilal Khan	2	8	0	0	25.00
Sarfaraz Alibowled · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed	7	4	0	1	175.00
Imran Ali Buttlbw · Aaqib Ilyas 4 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Aaqib Ilyas	50	34	4	2	147.06
Imran Anwarcaught · Kashyap Prajapati · Fiaz Bhutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kashyap Prajapati · b Fiaz Bhutt	1	4	0	0	25.00
Haider Buttbowled · Shakeel Ahmed 3 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed	47	27	3	3	174.07

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Bilal Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	1	0
Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	2	9.33	0	0
Fiaz Bhutt0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	2	1
Rafiullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	1	0
Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	0	0
Zeeshan Maqsood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	1	0
Aaqib Ilyas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	2	10.25	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	14	16/1
3	3	19/2
4	3	22/3
5	7	29/3
6	17	46/3
7	8	54/3
8	14	68/3
9	5	73/3
10	5	78/3
11	11	89/3
12	17	106/3
13	9	115/4
14	9	124/6
15	5	129/6
16	10	139/6
17	12	151/6
18	7	158/7
19	9	167/8
20	7	174/8

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