BahrainversusQatar

14 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Qatar won by 2 wickets

Bahrain20.0 overs119/10 Qatar20.0 overs120/8 Selangor Turf Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

56%Bahrain44%Qatar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Qatar (1,643 vs 1,555 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Qatar won 7 and Bahrain won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 52%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 14% to 75% during the match (Qatar: 25% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.6: Shujaat Rasool to Shariq Munir, six by Shariq Munir. Qatar up from 53% to 74%.
2nd inns 19.4: Shujaat Rasool to I Liyanage, four by I Liyanage. Qatar up from 44% to 86%.
2nd inns 19.6: Shujaat Rasool to Mujeeb-ur-Rehman, 1 run to Mujeeb-ur-Rehman. Qatar up from 75% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain119/10 Qatar120/8

Innings 1

Bahrain

119/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Asif Alicaught · Zeeshan Haider · Muhammad Asim 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Zeeshan Haider · b Muhammad Asim	16	13	1	1	123.08
P Kuruprun out · Muhammad Asim, Owais Ahmed · Owais Ahmed 2 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Muhammad Asim, Owais Ahmed	24	23	2	1	104.35
Fiaz Ahmedcaught · Zubair Ali · Owais Ahmed 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Zubair Ali · b Owais Ahmed	11	13	0	1	84.62
Junaid Azizbowled · Owais Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Owais Ahmed	0	5	0	0	0.00
Ahmer Bin Nasircaught · Imal Liyanage · Shariq Munir 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imal Liyanage · b Shariq Munir	8	16	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Shariq Munir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33
Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	1	8.33
Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	1	6.75
Mirza Mohammed Baig0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	27	2	13.50
Owais Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	3	3.00
Mujeeb Ur Rehman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	0	2.75

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	9	14/0
3	7	21/0
4	2	23/1
5	14	37/1
6	6	43/1
7	6	49/1
8	3	52/1
9	0	52/4
10	2	54/4
11	2	56/4
12	3	59/4
13	4	63/5
14	3	66/5
15	14	80/5
16	8	88/5
17	4	92/6
18	14	106/8
19	7	113/9
20	6	119/10

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