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New Zealand tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
30 Jul 2025 · Test
Recorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Will Young · Matt Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Matt Henry | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Ben Currancaught · Will Young · Matt Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Matt Henry | 13 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
| Nick Welchcaught · Michael Bracewell · Matt Henry 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Matt Henry | 27 | 68 | 4 | 0 | 39.71 |
 Sean Williamsbowled · Nathan Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
 Craig Ervinelbw · Nathan Smith6 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| lbw · b Nathan Smith |
| 39 |
| 116 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 33.62 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Tafadzwa Tsigalbw · Nathan Smith 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Smith | 30 | 78 | 5 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Newman Nyamhuricaught · Will Young · Matt Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Matt Henry | 9 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 45.00 |
|---|
| Vincent Masekesarun out · Devon Conway, Tom Blundell · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Devon Conway, Tom Blundell | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 31.82 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabanicaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Tanaka Chivanganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.3 | 3 | 39 | 6 | 2.52 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke3 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 2.00 | 7 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 8 | 20 | 3 | 1.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 2.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Brian Bennett, 3.0) · 2-24 (Ben Curran, 6.4) · 3-31 (Sean Williams, 11.2) · 4-67 (Nick Welch, 26.2) · 5-69 (Sikandar Raza, 26.5) · 6-123 (Craig Ervine, 50.1) · 7-136 (Tafadzwa Tsiga, 52.5) · 8-143 (Newman Nyamhuri, 56.5) · 9-149 (Vincent Masekesa, 59.2) · 10-149 (Blessing Muzarabani, 60.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 27/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 28/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 31/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 31/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 31/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 31/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 32/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 33/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 37/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 37/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 42/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 42/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 42/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 44/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 48/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 55/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 63/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 67/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 69/5 |
| 28 | 0 | 69/5 |
| 29 | 0 | 69/5 |
| 30 | 0 | 69/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 73/5 |
| 32 | 0 | 73/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 77/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 82/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 85/5 |
| 36 | 0 | 85/5 |
| 37 | 0 | 85/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 91/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 95/5 |
| 40 | 0 | 95/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 96/5 |
| 42 | 0 | 96/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 98/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 106/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 110/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 111/5 |
| 47 | 1 | 112/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 115/5 |
| 49 | 4 | 119/5 |
| 50 | 4 | 123/5 |
| 51 | 5 | 128/6 |
| 52 | 4 | 132/6 |
| 53 | 4 | 136/7 |
| 54 | 2 | 138/7 |
| 55 | 0 | 138/7 |
| 56 | 2 | 140/7 |
| 57 | 3 | 143/8 |
| 58 | 3 | 146/8 |
| 59 | 3 | 149/8 |
| 60 | 0 | 149/9 |
| 61 | 0 | 149/10 |
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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