NepalversusRwanda

28 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 38 runs

Nepal20.0 overs103/7 Rwanda17.4 overs65/10 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

31%Nepal69%Rwanda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Nepal (1,587 vs 1,456 on our results rating)
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 1 and Rwanda won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 30%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Rwanda is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.4: M Upadhayay to F Utagushimaninde, F Utagushimaninde out. Nepal up from 32% to 42%.
2nd inns 1.2: K Kunwar to G Ishimwe, G Ishimwe out. Nepal up from 43% to 55%.
2nd inns 8.4: Riya Sharma to A Ikuzwe, A Ikuzwe out. Nepal up from 66% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal103/7 Rwanda65/10

Innings 2

Rwanda

65/1017.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Rwanda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
F Utagushimanindecaught · Rubina Chhetri · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rubina Chhetri · b M Upadhayay	2	4	0	0	50.00
Gisele Ishimwebowled · K Kunwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Kunwar	0	2	0	0	0.00
A Ikuzwebowled · Riya Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Riya Sharma	7	27	0	0	25.93
Marie Bimenyimanacaught and bowled · Riya Sharma 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Riya Sharma	19	27	3	0	70.37
M Uwasebowled · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Upadhayay	6	15	0	0	40.00
C Uwase

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Upadhayay1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	3	2.50	1
K Kunwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	0
Puja Mahato0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	0	3.00	2
R Chaudhary0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	0	11	2	4.13	3
Riya Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	2	4.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	4	6/2
3	5	11/2
4	3	14/2
5	4	18/2
6	0	18/2
7	2	20/2
8	2	22/2
9	1	23/3
10	8	31/3
11	5	36/3
12	3	39/4
13	3	42/4
14	3	45/7
15	1	46/8
16	9	55/8
17	9	64/8
18	1	65/10

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