Viking Cup · 2026 · Men

NorwayversusSweden

11 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Sweden won by 5 wickets

Norway20.0 overs137/9 Sweden17.5 overs138/5 Botkyrka Cricket Center, Stockholm ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sweden more likely to win

46%Norway54%Sweden

Why

In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Norway won 5 and Sweden won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sweden rate stronger than Norway (1,545 vs 1,455 on our results rating)
Sweden are playing at home in Sweden

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Norway started on 42%; Norway batted first.

Norway’s chance of winning (%) · Sweden is the rest

Norway's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Sweden: 33% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: Ahmadullah Shinwari to Imal Zuwak, Imal Zuwak out. Norway up from 30% to 42%.
2nd inns 2.5: Ahmadullah Shinwari to Saeed Ahmed, Saeed Ahmed out. Norway up from 35% to 49%.
2nd inns 4.3: Ahmadullah Shinwari to Zaid Ahmad, Zaid Ahmad out. Norway up from 40% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Norway137/9 Sweden138/5

Innings 1

Norway

137/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Norway batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Khizer Ahmedcaught · A Mundra · A Dhabe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Mundra · b A Dhabe	0	2	0	0	0.00
D Asgharbowled · Abdul Naser Baluch 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Abdul Naser Baluch	12	14	0	1	85.71
Walid Ghaurirun out · W Boshoff, Samiullah Rahmani · Samiullah Rahmani 0 fours · 1 sixes	run out · W Boshoff, Samiullah Rahmani	18	25	0	1	72.00
Saif-Ul Islamcaught · Imal Zuwak · Zabiullah Zahid 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imal Zuwak · b Zabiullah Zahid	5	4	1	0	125.00
Chaudhary Akrambowled · Hamid Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Hamid Mahmood

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
A Dhabe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	0
Zabiullah Zahid0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	2
Abdul Naser Baluch0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	3
Hamid Mahmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0
Samiullah Rahmani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	7	8/1
3	3	11/1
4	10	21/1
5	7	28/2
6	1	29/3
7	6	35/3
8	5	40/3
9	9	49/4
10	3	52/6
11	2	54/6
12	2	56/6
13	4	60/6
14	10	70/6
15	6	76/6
16	7	83/6
17	9	92/6
18	16	108/6
19	10	118/7
20	19	137/9

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