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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Sri Lanka tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
31 Aug 2025 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 21 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 72.41 |
| Ben Currancaught · P Rathnayake · Asitha Fernando 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Rathnayake · b Asitha Fernando | 79 | 95 | 9 | 0 | 83.16 |
 Brendan Taylorcaught · Dushmantha Chameera · Janith Liyanage0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dushmantha Chameera · b Janith Liyanage | 20 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 54.05 |
 Sean Williamsbowled · Asitha Fernando1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 20 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 71.43 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 3% to 47% during the match (Sri Lanka: 53% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 59* |
| 55 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 107.27 |
| Tony Munyongabowled · Dilshan Madushanka 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dilshan Madushanka | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
 Clive Madandebowled · Dushmantha Chameera4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 36 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Brad Evanscaught · P Rathnayake · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Rathnayake · b Dushmantha Chameera | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 19 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | 7.44 | 4 | 0 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 5.70 | 5 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 3 | 5.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 4.50 | 6 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 5.14 | 2 | 0 |
1-55 (Brian Bennett, 9.4) · 2-116 (Brendan Taylor, 23.4) · 3-150 (Ben Curran, 31.1) · 4-155 (Sean Williams, 32.0) · 5-176 (Tony Munyonga, 37.1) · 6-252 (Clive Madande, 47.5) · 7-264 (Brad Evans, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 32/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 49/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 51/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 55/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 63/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 67/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 71/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 84/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 93/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 96/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 99/1 |
| 21 | 7 | 106/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 110/1 |
| 23 | 3 | 113/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 117/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 118/2 |
| 26 | 10 | 128/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 137/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 139/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 142/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 145/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 150/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 155/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 156/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 158/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 161/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 167/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 176/4 |
| 38 | 10 | 186/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 191/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 194/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 197/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 205/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 212/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 219/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 227/5 |
| 46 | 11 | 238/5 |
| 47 | 10 | 248/5 |
| 48 | 6 | 254/6 |
| 49 | 10 | 264/6 |
| 50 | 13 | 277/7 |
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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