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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
15 Feb 2026 · T20
MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 57%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Mohammad Mohsin · Shubham Ranjane 5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mohammad Mohsin · b Shubham Ranjane | 58 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 148.72 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught and bowled · Shadley van Schalkwyk 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 19 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 126.67 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Shubham Ranjane · Saurabh Netravalkar 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubham Ranjane · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 28 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 164.71 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Shayan Jahangir · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Shayan Jahangir · Ali Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Ali Khan |
| 31 |
| 23 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 134.78 |
| Zane Greenretired out · Saurabh Netravalkar 2 fours · 0 sixes | retired out | 18 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 138.46 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| DO Leichernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ali Khan0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 10.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saurabh Netravalkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Mohsin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-54 (Jan Frylinck, 5.2) · 2-99 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 10.3) · 3-112 (Louren Steenkamp, 12.3) · 4-123 (Gerhard Erasmus, 14.4) · 5-149 (Zane Green, 18.0) · 6-168 (JJ Smit, 19.5)
Recorded target: 200 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 20 | 48/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 57/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 67/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 75/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 86/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 97/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 101/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 109/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 115/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 121/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 125/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 17 | 11 | 140/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 149/5 |
| 19 | 13 | 162/5 |
| 20 | 6 | 168/6 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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