Papua New GuineaversusNamibia

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Namibia (1,564 vs 1,464 on our results rating)
• In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 1 and Namibia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 66%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 12% to 88% during the match (Namibia: 12% to 88%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 16.4: I Toua to W Mwatile, four by W Mwatile. Namibia up from 55% to 70%.
2. 2nd inns 19.1: P Siaka to W Mwatile, W Mwatile out. Papua New Guinea up from 31% to 46%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: P Siaka to N Benjamin, Yasmeen Khan out. Papua New Guinea up from 39% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.