BangladeshversusSri Lanka

13 Jul 2025 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 83 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs177/7 Sri Lanka15.2 overs94/10 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

32%Bangladesh68%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,565 vs 1,501 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 29%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.5: Mohammad Saifuddin to BKG Mendis, BKG Mendis out. Bangladesh up from 44% to 55%.
2nd inns 2.5: Shoriful Islam to MDKJ Perera, MDKJ Perera out. Bangladesh up from 59% to 73%.
2nd inns 4.1: Shoriful Islam to WIA Fernando, WIA Fernando out. Bangladesh up from 76% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh177/7 Sri Lanka94/10

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

94/1015.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankastumped · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain 2 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain	32	29	2	1	110.34
Kusal Mendisrun out · Shamim Hossain · Mohammad Saifuddin 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Shamim Hossain	8	5	2	0	160.00
Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Rishad Hossain · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Shariful Islam	0	4	0	0	0.00
Avishka Fernandocaught · Shamim Hossain · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shamim Hossain · b Shariful Islam	2	5	0	0	40.00
Charith Asalankacaught · Litton Das · Mohammad Saifuddin 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Mohammad Saifuddin	5	5

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	2	4.00	1
Mohammad Saifuddin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	2	7.00	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	1	4.67	1
Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	18	3	5.40	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	11	19/1
3	2	21/2
4	4	25/2
5	5	30/3
6	7	37/4
7	3	40/4
8	9	49/4
9	8	57/4
10	10	67/4
11	6	73/6
12	7	80/7
13	3	83/8
14	3	86/8
15	7	93/9
16	1	94/10

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