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Croatia tour of Spain · 2025/26 · Men
6 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Spain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Spain started on 94%; Spain batted first.
Spain's chances ranged from 94% to 100% during the match (Croatia: 0% to 6%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Houghtoncaught · Mohammad Kamran · LA Burns 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Kamran · b LA Burns | 24 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 61.54 |
| Saghar Manzoorcaught · Hamza Dar · Yasir Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hamza Dar · b Yasir Ali | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Jaikumar Thakurbowled · Mohammad Kamran 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Kamran | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| A Beresford-Peirsecaught and bowled · Mohammad Kamran 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Kamran | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A Razmilicbowled · Mohammad Kamran 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Kamran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · LA Burns · b Raja Adeel |
| 1 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 10.00 |
| A Magdalenicrun out · Yasir Ali · Raja Adeel 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Yasir Ali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| V Zankocaught · A Davidson Soler · C Rumistrzewicz 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Davidson Soler · b C Rumistrzewicz | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| R Muruganlbw · LA Burns 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b LA Burns | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sajid Khan (2)not out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| D Svilicicrun out · Yasir Ali · Raja Adeel 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Yasir Ali | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Kamran0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Yasir Ali1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Raja Adeel0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.00 | 5 | 0 |
| LA Burns0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| C Rumistrzewicz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Saghar Manzoor, 1.1) · 2-3 (Jaikumar Thakur, 2.1) · 3-3 (A Beresford-Peirse, 2.3) · 4-3 (A Razmilic, 2.4) · 5-15 (Abhishek Awasthi, 6.0) · 6-20 (A Magdalenic, 7.2) · 7-39 (V Zanko, 13.0) · 8-40 (R Murugan, 13.3) · 9-41 (S Houghton, 13.5) · 10-42 (D Svilicic, 14.2)
Recorded target: 225 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/4 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/4 |
| 5 | 6 | 10/4 |
| 6 | 5 | 15/5 |
| 7 | 3 | 18/5 |
| 8 | 2 | 20/6 |
| 9 | 3 | 23/6 |
| 10 | 4 | 27/6 |
| 11 | 8 | 35/6 |
| 12 | 3 | 38/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 39/7 |
| 14 | 3 | 42/9 |
| 15 | 0 | 42/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.