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England Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
7 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 27%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (England: 53% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Lambcaught and bowled · Orla Prendergast 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Orla Prendergast | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
 Tammy Beaumontbowled · Orla Prendergast2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Orla Prendergast | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 76.92 |
 Hollie Armitagecaught · A Tector · Aimee Maguire6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Tector · b Aimee Maguire | 44 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Paige Scholfieldcaught · Jane Maguire · FA Sargent5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b FA Sargent | 31 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 33 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 93.94 |
| Freya Kempbowled · Arlene Kelly 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Arlene Kelly | 26 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 136.84 |
|---|
| Bess Heathnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 33* | 37 | 1 | 0 | 89.19 |
|---|
| Mady Villiersrun out · Amy Hunter, Orla Prendergast · Aimee Maguire 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amy Hunter, Orla Prendergast | 13 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 92.86 |
|---|
 Kate Crossnot out6 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 38* | 36 | 6 | 0 | 105.56 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| A Tector0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 6.26 | 2 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 4 | 0 |
| FA Sargent0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 7.43 | 2 | 0 |
1-9 (Emma Lamb, 2.4) · 2-32 (Tammy Beaumont, 6.1) · 3-94 (Paige Scholfield, 16.4) · 4-96 (Hollie Armitage, 17.4) · 5-132 (Freya Kemp, 22.5) · 6-156 (Mady Villiers, 27.1)
Recorded target: 211 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 27/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 50/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 13 | 67/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 71/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 76/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 82/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 89/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 99/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 104/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 109/4 |
| 21 | 11 | 120/4 |
| 22 | 9 | 129/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 132/5 |
| 24 | 8 | 140/5 |
| 25 | 6 | 146/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 148/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 155/5 |
| 28 | 8 | 163/6 |
| 29 | 6 | 169/6 |
| 30 | 6 | 175/6 |
| 31 | 6 | 181/6 |
| 32 | 12 | 193/6 |
| 33 | 1 | 194/6 |
| 34 | 6 | 200/6 |
| 35 | 11 | 211/6 |
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paige Scholfield: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hollie Armitage: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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