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England Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
7 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 27%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (England: 53% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Una Raymond-Hoeylbw · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kate Cross | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Hollie Armitage · Lauren Filer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hollie Armitage · b Lauren Filer | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Amy Huntercaught · Freya Kemp · Hannah Baker 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Freya Kemp · b Hannah Baker | 37 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 82.22 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Lauren Filer · Kate Cross 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lauren Filer · b Kate Cross | 76 | 87 | 8 | 1 | 87.36 |
| Leah Paulrun out · Freya Kemp, Bess Heath · Mady Villiers 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Freya Kemp, Bess Heath | 33 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 61.11 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Ryana MacDonald-Gay |
| 4 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Arlene Kellycaught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · b Kate Cross | 12 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 41.38 |
|---|
| A Tectorstumped · Bess Heath · Kate Cross 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Bess Heath · b Kate Cross | 21 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 80.77 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirebowled · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kate Cross | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| FA Sargentnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Aimee Maguirebowled · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kate Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 30 | 6 | 3.05 | 5 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.89 | 3 | 0 |
| Hannah Baker0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryana MacDonald-Gay0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Mady Villiers0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 4.90 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Una Raymond-Hoey, 0.5) · 2-21 (Gaby Lewis, 5.2) · 3-74 (Amy Hunter, 16.3) · 4-151 (Orla Prendergast, 30.4) · 5-165 (Rebecca Stokell, 34.2) · 6-173 (Leah Paul, 38.0) · 7-200 (Arlene Kelly, 44.1) · 8-203 (Jane Maguire, 45.0) · 9-210 (A Tector, 46.4) · 10-210 (Aimee Maguire, 46.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 30/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 46/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 61/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 16 | 8 | 72/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 75/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 19 | 8 | 85/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 88/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 90/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 94/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 24 | 11 | 111/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 119/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 124/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 126/3 |
| 28 | 10 | 136/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 138/3 |
| 30 | 11 | 149/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 151/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 157/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 162/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 165/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 167/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 171/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 172/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 173/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 176/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 178/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 181/6 |
| 42 | 8 | 189/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 196/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 200/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 203/8 |
| 46 | 5 | 208/8 |
| 47 | 2 | 210/10 |
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paige Scholfield: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hollie Armitage: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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