HampshireversusSussex

2 Jun 2026 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hampshire won by 29 runs

Hampshire20.0 overs173/6 Sussex17.3 overs144/10 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hampshire started on 61%; Hampshire batted first.

Hampshire’s chance of winning (%) · Sussex is the rest

Hampshire's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Sussex: 0% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.4: JK Fuller to TP Alsop, TP Alsop out. Hampshire up from 45% to 63%.
2nd inns 12.3: LA Dawson to JA Leaning, JA Leaning out. Hampshire up from 52% to 74%.
2nd inns 13.2: SW Currie to JA Simpson, JA Simpson out. Hampshire up from 72% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Sussex chose to field
match referees: SG Hinks
umpires: BJ Debenham, BJ Peverall

Match history & source

On 2 Jun 2026, Hampshire played Sussex at The Rose Bowl, Southampton. Recorded result: Hampshire won by 29 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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