**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

IndiaversusNepal

23 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 82 runs

India20.0 overs178/3 Nepal20.0 overs96/9 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

73%India27%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Nepal (1,677 vs 1,514 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 71%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

India's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

0.4: K Kunwar to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 72% to 75%.
0.6: K Kunwar to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 75% to 77%.
1.5: Sabnam Rai to D Hemalatha, four by D Hemalatha. India up from 75% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India178/3 Nepal96/9

Innings 1

India

178/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shafali Vermastumped · K Shrestha · Sita Rana Magar 12 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · K Shrestha · b Sita Rana Magar	81	48	12	1	168.75
Dayalan Hemalathacaught · Rubina Chhetri · Sita Rana Magar 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rubina Chhetri · b Sita Rana Magar	47	42	5	1	111.90
Sajeevan Sajanalbw · Kabita Joshi 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kabita Joshi	10	12	1	0	83.33
Jemimah Rodriguesnot out 5 fours · 0 sixes	not out	28*	15	5	0	186.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Kunwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0
Sabnam Rai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	1
Puja Mahato0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	2
Kabita Joshi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	2
Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	0
I Barma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	0	7.25	0
Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	5	15/0
3	10	25/0
4	10	35/0
5	13	48/0
6	2	50/0
7	14	64/0
8	17	81/0
9	4	85/0
10	6	91/0
11	10	101/0
12	7	108/0
13	6	114/0
14	8	122/1
15	9	131/1
16	4	135/2
17	8	143/2
18	11	154/2
19	9	163/3
20	15	178/3

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