ZimbabweversusIreland

20 Jul 2025 · T20

Pembroke Cricket Club, Sandymount, Dublin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 6 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs117/9 Ireland16.5 overs118/4 Pembroke Cricket Club, Sandymount, Dublin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

13%Zimbabwe87%Ireland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,643 vs 1,475 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 8 and Zimbabwe won 0
Ireland are playing at home in Ireland

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 11%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Ireland: 85% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: O Prendergast to M Mupachikwa, M Mupachikwa out. Ireland up from 87% to 91%.
12.3: J Maguire to CT Dhururu, CT Dhururu out. Ireland up from 86% to 90%.
2nd inns 8.5: K Chigora to O Prendergast, O Prendergast out. Zimbabwe up from 8% to 13%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe117/9 Ireland118/4

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

117/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kelis Ndhlovucaught and bowled · LA McBride 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b LA McBride	20	24	2	0	83.33
Modester Mupachikwacaught · Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Hunter · b Orla Prendergast	4	2	1	0	200.00
Chipo Mugeribowled · Arlene Kelly 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Arlene Kelly	42	50	5	0	84.00
Loren Tshumarun out · Laura Delany, Louise Little · Laura Delany 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Laura Delany, Louise Little	7	5	1	0	140.00
B Bizacaught · LA McBride · Cara Murray 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LA McBride · b Cara Murray	11	9	1	0	122.22

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	2	0
Jane Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	0	5.33	1	0
Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	10	2	3.33	1	0
LA McBride0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	1	6.67	1	0
Laura Delany0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	2	1
Cara Murray0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	8	16/1
3	7	23/1
4	2	25/1
5	3	28/1
6	3	31/1
7	5	36/1
8	9	45/2
9	7	52/3
10	9	61/3
11	9	70/3
12	5	75/4
13	7	82/5
14	5	87/6
15	9	96/6
16	6	102/6
17	3	105/6
18	3	108/7
19	7	115/7
20	2	117/9

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