South AfricaversusPakistan

10 Dec 2024 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 11 runs

South Africa20.0 overs183/9 Pakistan20.0 overs172/8 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

55%South Africa45%Pakistan

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 7 and South Africa won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Pakistan (1,576 vs 1,526 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 55%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 31% to 99% during the match (Pakistan: 1% to 69%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Shaheen Shah Afridi to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. Pakistan up from 45% to 59%.
2nd inns 16.5: KT Maphaka to Mohammad Rizwan, six by Mohammad Rizwan. Pakistan up from 25% to 49%.
2nd inns 17.4: GF Linde to Irfan Khan, Irfan Khan out. South Africa up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa183/9 Pakistan172/8

Innings 2

Pakistan

172/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Rizwancaught · Nqaba Peter · Kwena Maphaka 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Nqaba Peter · b Kwena Maphaka	74	62	5	3	119.35
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Andile Simelane · Kwena Maphaka 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Andile Simelane · b Kwena Maphaka	0	4	0	0	0.00
Saim Ayubcaught · Matthew Breetzke · Andile Simelane 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Andile Simelane	31	15	7	0	206.67
Usman Khancaught · Reeza Hendricks · George Linde 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	39	2	9.75	2	1
Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1	0
Andile Simelane0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	44	1	11.00	1	1
Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	0	7.25	2	0
George Linde0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	4	5.25	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	6	15/0
3	3	18/1
4	13	31/1
5	9	40/1
6	15	55/1
7	7	62/2
8	3	65/2
9	8	73/2
10	5	78/3
11	6	84/3
12	9	93/3
13	11	104/3
14	4	108/3
15	3	111/4
16	13	124/4
17	24	148/4
18	5	153/7
19	12	165/7
20	7	172/8

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