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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
29 Oct 2024 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 64%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Nepal: 37% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anil Sahlbw · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Brandon McMullen | 13 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 68.42 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Watt | 21 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 61.76 |
 Kushal Mallalbw · Brad Currie0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 7 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 38.89 |
 Kushal Bhurtellbw · Jack Jarvis2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jack Jarvis | 25 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 73.53 |
 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Mark Watt · b Brandon McMullen |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
 Aarif Sheikhnot out8 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 51* | 42 | 8 | 0 | 121.43 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhanot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 25* | 30 | 3 | 1 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 5.23 | 4 | 0 |
 Brad Wheal1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 5.38 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 1 | 1 |
1-32 (Anil Sah, 6.1) · 2-42 (Kushal Malla, 11.0) · 3-60 (Aasif Sheikh, 14.3) · 4-63 (Rohit Kumar, 15.2) · 5-100 (Kushal Bhurtel, 21.3)
Recorded target: 155 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 32/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 38/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 50/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 56/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 65/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 70/4 |
| 18 | 13 | 83/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 86/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 90/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 95/4 |
| 22 | 7 | 102/5 |
| 23 | 11 | 113/5 |
| 24 | 14 | 127/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 128/5 |
| 26 | 1 | 129/5 |
| 27 | 6 | 135/5 |
| 28 | 0 | 135/5 |
| 29 | 8 | 143/5 |
| 30 | 14 | 157/5 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Andrew Umeed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
