EnglandversusIndia

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 6 wickets

England20.0 overs126/7 India17.0 overs127/4 Old Trafford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

69%England31%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,728 vs 1,660 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 66%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (India: 26% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: N Shree Charani to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. India up from 26% to 33%.
5.2: DB Sharma to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. India up from 33% to 40%.
11.1: N Shree Charani to A Capsey, A Capsey out. India up from 38% to 45%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England126/7 India127/4

Innings 2

India

127/417.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Lauren Filer · Sophie Ecclestone 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Lauren Filer · b Sophie Ecclestone	32	31	5	0	103.23
Shafali Vermacaught · Alice Capsey · Charlie Dean 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alice Capsey · b Charlie Dean	31	19	6	0	163.16
Jemimah Rodriguesnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes	not out	24*	22	1	0	109.09
Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Sophie Ecclestone · Issy Wong3 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	2	1
Lauren Filer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	1	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0	0
Issy Wong0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	0	0
Alice Capsey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	14	20/0
3	11	31/0
4	14	45/0
5	5	50/0
6	3	53/0
7	3	56/1
8	10	66/1
9	4	70/2
10	4	74/2
11	7	81/2
12	5	86/2
13	2	88/2
14	12	100/2
15	10	110/2
16	8	118/3
17	9	127/4

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