CanadaversusArgentina

2 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Argentina won by 2 wickets

Canada20.0 overs67/8 Argentina17.3 overs70/8 St George's College Ground, Buenos Aires ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Argentina more likely to win

45%Canada55%Argentina

Why

Argentina are playing at home in Argentina
On results in T20 internationals so far, Canada rate stronger than Argentina (1,387 vs 1,387 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canada started on 42%; Canada batted first.

Canada’s chance of winning (%) · Argentina is the rest

Canada's chances ranged from 1% to 61% during the match (Argentina: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.3: K Kapadia to JC Cullen, JC Cullen out. Canada up from 14% to 27%.
2nd inns 11.5: K Kapadia to J Andujar, J Andujar out. Canada up from 28% to 61%.
2nd inns 15.4: K Kapadia to A Emch, four by A Emch. Argentina up from 76% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Canada67/8 Argentina70/8

Innings 2

Argentina

70/817.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Argentina batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
M Castineirashit wicket · Shreya Voya 0 fours · 0 sixes	hit wicket · b Shreya Voya	4	11	0	0	36.36
MV Lehmanncaught · Rabbjyot Rajput · Shreya Voya 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rabbjyot Rajput · b Shreya Voya	0	3	0	0	0.00
A Galancaught · M Hundal · K Kapadia 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Hundal · b K Kapadia	9	18	0	0	50.00
M Bestanicaught · Khadeeja Fatima · Snigdha Malhotra 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khadeeja Fatima · b Snigdha Malhotra	2	6	0	0	33.33
JC Cullencaught · Vritti Dahiya · K Kapadia 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Vritti Dahiya · b K Kapadia	24	26	0	1	92.31

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Snigdha Malhotra0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	2
Shreya Voya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	10	2	2.50	1
Vritti Dahiya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	1	4.00	0
K Kapadia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	0
Harper Chalmers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	0
H Santhoshkumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	4	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	2	4/1
3	5	9/1
4	1	10/2
5	5	15/3
6	4	19/3
7	3	22/3
8	3	25/3
9	5	30/3
10	7	37/4
11	3	40/5
12	2	42/7
13	4	46/7
14	2	48/7
15	4	52/7
16	9	61/7
17	5	66/8
18	4	70/8

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