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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
4 Mar 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 37%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmalbw · Cooper Connolly3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Cooper Connolly | 28 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 96.55 |
 Shubman Gillbowled · Ben Dwarshuis1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Dwarshuis | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 72.73 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Ben Dwarshuis · Adam Zampa5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Dwarshuis · b Adam Zampa | 84 | 98 | 5 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Shreyas Iyerbowled · Adam Zampa3 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 1% to 72% during the match (India: 28% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Adam Zampa |
| 45 |
| 62 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 72.58 |
 Axar Patelbowled · Nathan Ellis1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 27 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 90.00 |
|---|
 KL Rahulnot out2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 42* | 34 | 2 | 2 | 123.53 |
|---|
 Hardik Pandyacaught · Glenn Maxwell · Nathan Ellis1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Nathan Ellis | 28 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 116.67 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 5.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 4.63 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanveer Sangha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 6.83 | 0 | 0 |
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.1 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5.68 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Shubman Gill, 5.0) · 2-43 (Rohit Sharma, 7.5) · 3-134 (Shreyas Iyer, 26.2) · 4-178 (Axar Patel, 35.0) · 5-225 (Virat Kohli, 42.4) · 6-259 (Hardik Pandya, 47.5)
Recorded target: 265 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 47/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 55/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 71/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 75/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 85/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 88/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 93/2 |
| 20 | 10 | 103/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 106/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 110/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 117/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 122/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 131/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 134/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 136/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 141/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 147/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 150/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 158/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 161/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 167/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 175/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 178/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 183/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 187/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 192/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 198/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 200/4 |
| 41 | 8 | 208/4 |
| 42 | 9 | 217/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 226/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 229/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 237/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 238/5 |
| 47 | 15 | 253/5 |
| 48 | 8 | 261/6 |
| 49 | 6 | 267/6 |
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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