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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
4 Mar 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 37%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Shubman Gill · Varun Chakravarthy5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shubman Gill · b Varun Chakravarthy | 39 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 118.18 |
| Cooper Connollycaught · KL Rahul · Mohammed Shami 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Mohammed Shami | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Steve Smithbowled · Mohammed Shami4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Shami | 73 | 96 | 4 | 1 | 76.04 |
 Marnus Labuschagnelbw · Ravindra Jadeja2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Ravindra Jadeja | 29 | 36 |
Australia's chances ranged from 1% to 72% during the match (India: 28% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 80.56 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Virat Kohli · Ravindra Jadeja0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Ravindra Jadeja | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
 Alex Careyrun out · Shreyas Iyer · Hardik Pandya8 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Shreyas Iyer | 61 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 107.02 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellbowled · Axar Patel0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Ben Dwarshuiscaught · Shreyas Iyer · Varun Chakravarthy 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Varun Chakravarthy | 19 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 65.52 |
|---|
 Adam Zampabowled · Hardik Pandya0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hardik Pandya | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Nathan Elliscaught · Virat Kohli · Mohammed Shami 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Mohammed Shami | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Tanveer Sanghanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 3 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.3 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 7.27 | 4 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 5.38 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Cooper Connolly, 3.0) · 2-54 (Travis Head, 8.2) · 3-110 (Marnus Labuschagne, 22.3) · 4-144 (Josh Inglis, 27.0) · 5-198 (Steve Smith, 36.4) · 6-205 (Glenn Maxwell, 37.3) · 7-239 (Ben Dwarshuis, 45.2) · 8-249 (Alex Carey, 47.1) · 9-262 (Nathan Ellis, 49.0) · 10-264 (Adam Zampa, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 14 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 47/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 66/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 69/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 72/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 72/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 76/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 82/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 91/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 96/2 |
| 20 | 9 | 105/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 105/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 106/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 113/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 120/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 125/3 |
| 26 | 8 | 133/3 |
| 27 | 11 | 144/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 146/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 152/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 158/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 160/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 165/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 173/4 |
| 34 | 9 | 182/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 186/4 |
| 36 | 9 | 195/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 199/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 206/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 207/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 213/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 214/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 217/6 |
| 43 | 10 | 227/6 |
| 44 | 7 | 234/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 239/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 242/7 |
| 47 | 6 | 248/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 252/8 |
| 49 | 10 | 262/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 264/10 |
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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