Adelaide StrikersversusPerth Scorchers

20 Jan 2024 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 50 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs155/7 Perth Scorchers16.2 overs105/10 Perth Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 33%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 12% to 100% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 0% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.6: CJ Boyce to SM Whiteman, SM Whiteman out. Adelaide Strikers up from 38% to 55%.
2nd inns 7.4: L Pope to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. Adelaide Strikers up from 55% to 72%.
2nd inns 11.1: CJ Boyce to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. Adelaide Strikers up from 64% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers155/7 Perth Scorchers105/10

Innings 1