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South Africa Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
1 Apr 2026 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 56%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batesbowled · Ayabonga Khaka0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayabonga Khaka | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Georgia Plimmercaught · K Meso · K Reyneke 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Meso · b K Reyneke | 23 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 69.70 |
 Amelia Kerrnot out23 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 179* | 139 | 23 | 1 | 128.78 |
 Maddy Greenlbw · K Reyneke1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b K Reyneke | 13 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 22% to 97% during the match (New Zealand: 3% to 79%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Suné Luus |
| 14 |
| 13 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 107.69 |
| Izzy Gazecaught · Nadine de Klerk · Masabata Klaas 11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Masabata Klaas | 68 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 141.67 |
|---|
| Izzy Sharpcaught · Tazmin Brits · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Ayabonga Khaka | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrcaught · Nonkululeko Mlaba · Masabata Klaas 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nonkululeko Mlaba · b Masabata Klaas | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Rosemary Maircaught · Suné Luus · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Ayabonga Khaka | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Kayley Knightnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 3 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Masabata Klaas0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 61 | 2 | 7.63 | 8 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 9.12 | 3 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| K Reyneke0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 7.71 | 0 | 1 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Suzie Bates, 4.4) · 2-73 (Georgia Plimmer, 15.3) · 3-101 (Maddy Green, 21.1) · 4-130 (Brooke Halliday, 24.3) · 5-250 (Izzy Gaze, 38.0) · 6-290 (Izzy Sharp, 44.4) · 7-329 (Jess Kerr, 47.5) · 8-334 (Rosemary Mair, 48.4)
Recorded target: 347 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 53/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 61/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 68/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 78/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 83/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 86/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 101/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 109/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 117/3 |
| 24 | 13 | 130/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 136/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 145/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 152/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 156/4 |
| 29 | 11 | 167/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 173/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 177/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 185/4 |
| 33 | 17 | 202/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 209/4 |
| 35 | 10 | 219/4 |
| 36 | 12 | 231/4 |
| 37 | 11 | 242/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 250/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 256/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 263/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 270/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 273/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 279/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 284/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 292/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 301/6 |
| 47 | 13 | 314/6 |
| 48 | 16 | 330/7 |
| 49 | 6 | 336/8 |
| 50 | 14 | 350/8 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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