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North America T20 Cup · 2025 · Men
20 Apr 2025 · T20
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 74%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Bahamas: 0% to 25%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylorbowled · A Desai 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b A Desai | 19 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 90.48 |
| Festus Bennrun out · VM Vaghela · A Desai 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · VM Vaghela | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
| RA Tappincaught · B Akhilesh Reddy · VM Vaghela 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Akhilesh Reddy · b VM Vaghela | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| E Duffrun out · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · VM Vaghela 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sanjay Krishnamurthi | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| K Hindscaught · Milind Kumar · Yasir Mohammad 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Yasir Mohammad | 15 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 93.75 |
| caught · Aaron Jones · b VM Vaghela |
| 5 |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 23.81 |
| J Jemisoncaught · Aaron Jones · Yasir Mohammad 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Jones · b Yasir Mohammad | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Antonio Harriscaught · A Desai · VM Vaghela 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Desai · b VM Vaghela | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sandeep Goud (2)caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · B Akhilesh Reddy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · b B Akhilesh Reddy | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| R Pattennot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| R Smithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Akhilesh Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| AS Nadkarni0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 3 | 0 |
| A Desai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| VM Vaghela0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Yasir Mohammad0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Sanjay Krishnamurthi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Festus Benn, 4.5) · 2-30 (RA Tappin, 6.4) · 3-30 (Marc Taylor, 7.1) · 4-38 (E Duff, 9.0) · 5-53 (K Hinds, 11.5) · 6-64 (J Jemison, 15.5) · 7-65 (Antonio Harris, 16.2) · 8-66 (R Davson, 16.5) · 9-67 (Sandeep Goud (2), 18.2)
Recorded target: 218 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 30/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 34/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 38/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 42/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 47/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 53/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 56/5 |
| 14 | 1 | 57/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 61/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 64/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 66/8 |
| 18 | 0 | 66/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 67/9 |
| 20 | 1 | 68/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.