BangladeshversusWest Indies

17 Dec 2024 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 27 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs129/7 West Indies18.3 overs102/10 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

39%Bangladesh61%West Indies

Why

West Indies are playing at home in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and Bangladesh won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,589 vs 1,578 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 38%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: Taskin Ahmed to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. Bangladesh up from 27% to 40%.
2nd inns 5.5: Mahedi Hasan to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Bangladesh up from 51% to 72%.
2nd inns 7.2: Hasan Mahmud to R Powell, R Powell out. Bangladesh up from 63% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh129/7 West Indies102/10

Innings 2

West Indies

102/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brandon Kingcaught · Litton Das · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Taskin Ahmed	8	5	1	0	160.00
Johnson Charleslbw · Mahedi Hasan 2 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Mahedi Hasan	14	12	2	1	116.67
Andre Fletchercaught · Litton Das · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Taskin Ahmed	0	4	0	0	0.00
Nicolas Poorancaught · Soumya Sarkar · Mahedi Hasan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Mahedi Hasan	5	8	1	0	62.50
Roston Chasebowled · Rishad Hossain 1 fours · 2 sixes	bowled

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Hasan Mahmud1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	23	1	7.67	0
Mahedi Hasan1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	2	5.00	3
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	16	3	4.57	0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	2	5.50	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	2	4.00	0
Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	12	19/0
3	4	23/2
4	6	29/3
5	3	32/3
6	0	32/4
7	9	41/4
8	0	41/5
9	1	42/6
10	2	44/6
11	3	47/6
12	8	55/6
13	2	57/6
14	4	61/6
15	5	66/6
16	16	82/6
17	7	89/8
18	9	98/9
19	4	102/10

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