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Sri Lanka Women tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Women
22 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 55%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasini Pererabowled · Sultana Khatun1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sultana Khatun | 5 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Chamari Atapattubowled · Nahida Akter8 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahida Akter | 40 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 102.56 |
| Imesha Dulanicaught · Nahida Akter · Ritu Moni 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nahida Akter · b Ritu Moni | 8 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 47.06 |
 Harshitha Madavibowled · Nahida Akter7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahida Akter | 50 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Sri Lanka: 43% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 65.79 |
| Hansima Karunaratnecaught · Nigar Sultana · Nahida Akter 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Nahida Akter | 40 | 64 | 6 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Kavisha Dilharinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Kaushini Nuthyanganacaught · Ritu Moni · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ritu Moni · b Nahida Akter | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Nilakshi de Silvanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Sultana Khatun3 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 11 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 7.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 1 | 21 | 4 | 2.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (Hasini Perera, 5.1) · 2-46 (Imesha Dulani, 10.2) · 3-79 (Chamari Atapattu, 16.4) · 4-156 (Hansima Karunaratne, 35.0) · 5-159 (Harshitha Madavi, 36.2) · 6-163 (Kaushini Nuthyangana, 37.0)
Recorded target: 166 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 19/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 32/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 45/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 46/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 54/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 63/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 16 | 12 | 79/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 79/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 81/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 21 | 10 | 95/3 |
| 22 | 9 | 104/3 |
| 23 | 0 | 104/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 110/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 116/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 117/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 122/3 |
| 30 | 14 | 136/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 145/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 151/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 153/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 154/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 156/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 159/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 163/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 165/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 166/6 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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