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Sri Lanka Women tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Women
22 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 55%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Imesha Dulani · Malki Madara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imesha Dulani · b Malki Madara | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
| Sharmin Sultanalbw · Chamari Atapattu 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 25 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 64.10 |
 Sharmin Akhtercaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · Malki Madara0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Malki Madara | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Nigar Sultanacaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · NM Meepage4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b NM Meepage | 58 | 101 | 4 | 0 | 57.43 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Sri Lanka: 43% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Inoka Ranaweera · b Chamari Atapattu |
| 5 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 45.45 |
| Shorna Akterlbw · Kavisha Dilhari 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kavisha Dilhari | 16 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| Ritu Monicaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Chamari Atapattu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Chamari Atapattu | 17 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 94.44 |
|---|
 Nahida Aktercaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · Inoka Ranaweera1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Inoka Ranaweera | 20 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 48.78 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khanlbw · NM Meepage 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b NM Meepage | 15 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 78.95 |
|---|
| Sultana Khatunnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Marufa Aktercaught · NM Meepage · Inoka Ranaweera0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NM Meepage · b Inoka Ranaweera | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 30 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| NM Meepage1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 29 | 2 | 3.22 | 0 | 0 |
 Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 2.85 | 1 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-4 (Juairiya Ferdous, 2.4) · 2-4 (Sharmin Akhter, 4.4) · 3-49 (Sharmin Sultana, 15.3) · 4-55 (Sobhana Mostary, 17.3) · 5-87 (Shorna Akter, 25.4) · 6-111 (Ritu Moni, 30.3) · 7-144 (Nigar Sultana, 40.5) · 8-163 (Rabeya Khan, 44.3) · 9-163 (Nahida Akter, 45.1) · 10-165 (Marufa Akter, 45.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 4/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 5/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 11/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 15/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 20/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 23/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 37/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 45/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 49/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 57/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 59/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 65/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 66/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 70/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 72/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 72/4 |
| 25 | 10 | 82/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 91/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 98/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 100/5 |
| 29 | 7 | 107/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 111/5 |
| 31 | 0 | 111/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 114/6 |
| 33 | 5 | 119/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 120/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 126/6 |
| 36 | 1 | 127/6 |
| 37 | 5 | 132/6 |
| 38 | 5 | 137/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 140/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 142/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 145/7 |
| 42 | 8 | 153/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 158/7 |
| 44 | 3 | 161/7 |
| 45 | 2 | 163/8 |
| 46 | 2 | 165/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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