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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 1 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
24 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 87%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 87% to 100% during the match (Germany: 0% to 13%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Hornero-Garciabowled · Jane Maguire 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jane Maguire | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 27.78 |
| Karthika Vijayaraghavanlbw · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Laura Delany | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| S Kolcharamrun out · FA Sargent, Cara Murray · Cara Murray 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · FA Sargent, Cara Murray | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Rameesha Shahidcaught · Alana Dalzell · Cara Murray 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alana Dalzell · b Cara Murray | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
| A Kanukuntlacaught · Jane Maguire · Leah Paul 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Leah Paul | 9 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
| lbw · b FA Sargent |
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 28.57 |
| A Kohlibowled · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Laura Delany | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
| I Edwardslbw · Leah Paul 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Leah Paul | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Aishani Kishorenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| A Meyenborgnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jane Maguire1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Alana Dalzell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 5.00 | 8 | 0 |
| Cara Murray1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
| FA Sargent0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Leah Paul0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (W Hornero-Garcia, 4.4) · 2-12 (Karthika Vijayaraghavan, 6.1) · 3-21 (S Kolcharam, 7.1) · 4-23 (Rameesha Shahid, 9.1) · 5-31 (V Stolle, 14.1) · 6-36 (A Kohli, 16.5) · 7-41 (I Edwards, 18.0) · 8-44 (A Kanukuntla, 19.4)
Recorded target: 224 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 3/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 22/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 23/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 24/4 |
| 11 | 1 | 25/4 |
| 12 | 0 | 25/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 27/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 31/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 32/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 34/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 39/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 41/7 |
| 19 | 2 | 43/7 |
| 20 | 1 | 44/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.