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South Africa tour of Australia · 2025 · Men
22 Aug 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 38%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Aiden Markram · Nandre Burger1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Nandre Burger | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Mitchell Marshcaught · C Bosch · Wiaan Mulder4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Bosch · b Wiaan Mulder | 18 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 72.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Ryan Rickelton · Lungi Ngidi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Lungi Ngidi | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Cameron Green |
South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Senuran Muthusamy |
| 35 |
| 54 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 64.81 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Ryan Rickelton · Lungi Ngidi10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Lungi Ngidi | 87 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 117.57 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Dewald Brevis · Nandre Burger1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewald Brevis · b Nandre Burger | 13 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Aaron Hardiecaught and bowled · Lungi Ngidi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Lungi Ngidi | 10 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettcaught · C Bosch · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · C Bosch · b Lungi Ngidi | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisstumped · Ryan Rickelton · Senuran Muthusamy 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ryan Rickelton · b Senuran Muthusamy | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Adam Zampacaught · C Bosch · Lungi Ngidi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Bosch · b Lungi Ngidi | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandre Burger0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 3.83 | 1 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 4.85 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 6.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Senuran Muthusamy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (Travis Head, 2.2) · 2-7 (Marnus Labuschagne, 3.3) · 3-38 (Mitchell Marsh, 9.2) · 4-105 (Cameron Green, 22.3) · 5-133 (Alex Carey, 27.3) · 6-175 (Aaron Hardie, 33.3) · 7-184 (Josh Inglis, 35.1) · 8-185 (Xavier Bartlett, 35.4) · 9-189 (Nathan Ellis, 37.0) · 10-193 (Adam Zampa, 37.4)
Recorded target: 278 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 7/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 11/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 39/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 41/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 44/3 |
| 14 | 12 | 56/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 63/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 18 | 9 | 78/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 81/3 |
| 20 | 14 | 95/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 99/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 103/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 105/4 |
| 24 | 12 | 117/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 121/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 128/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 132/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 137/5 |
| 29 | 11 | 148/5 |
| 30 | 6 | 154/5 |
| 31 | 9 | 163/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 170/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 174/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 176/6 |
| 35 | 8 | 184/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 187/8 |
| 37 | 2 | 189/9 |
| 38 | 4 | 193/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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