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South Africa tour of Australia · 2025 · Men
22 Aug 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 38%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Josh Inglis · Xavier Bartlett0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Xavier Bartlett | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 47.06 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Travis Head · Xavier Bartlett0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Xavier Bartlett | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught and bowled · Adam Zampa 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Adam Zampa | 38 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 97.44 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Alex Carey · Nathan Ellis 8 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Nathan Ellis | 88 | 78 | 8 | 2 | 112.82 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Cameron Green · b Adam Zampa |
| 74 |
| 87 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 85.06 |
| Dewald Breviscaught · Cameron Green · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Nathan Ellis | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Cameron Green · Marnus Labuschagne4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Marnus Labuschagne | 26 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 123.81 |
|---|
| Senuran Muthusamycaught · Aaron Hardie · Marnus Labuschagne 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Hardie · b Marnus Labuschagne | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 22* | 24 | 2 | 1 | 91.67 |
|---|
| Nandre Burgercaught · Cameron Green · Adam Zampa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Adam Zampa | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidibowled · Josh Hazlewood0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 6.22 | 1 | 0 |
| Xavier Bartlett1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 2 | 1 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 63 | 3 | 6.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Aiden Markram, 1.4) · 2-23 (Ryan Rickelton, 5.4) · 3-90 (Tony de Zorzi, 16.0) · 4-179 (Matthew Breetzke, 31.0) · 5-185 (Dewald Brevis, 33.0) · 6-233 (Wiaan Mulder, 40.1) · 7-243 (Senuran Muthusamy, 42.1) · 8-245 (Tristan Stubbs, 43.1) · 9-264 (Nandre Burger, 45.5) · 10-277 (Lungi Ngidi, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 12/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 16 | 45/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 51/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 75/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 89/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 90/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 97/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 100/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 110/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 118/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 24 | 12 | 133/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 138/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 141/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 150/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 159/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 168/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 176/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 179/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 184/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 185/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 188/5 |
| 35 | 8 | 196/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 201/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 204/5 |
| 38 | 10 | 214/5 |
| 39 | 11 | 225/5 |
| 40 | 8 | 233/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 237/6 |
| 42 | 6 | 243/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 245/7 |
| 44 | 12 | 257/8 |
| 45 | 3 | 260/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 264/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 265/9 |
| 48 | 10 | 275/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 277/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 277/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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