KuwaitversusMyanmar

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Royal Selangor Club, Kuala Lumpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 27 runs

Kuwait20.0 overs125/8 Myanmar20.0 overs98/8 Royal Selangor Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kuwait more likely to win

55%Kuwait45%Myanmar

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Kuwait won 1 and Myanmar won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Myanmar rate stronger than Kuwait (1,333 vs 1,331 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kuwait started on 52%; Kuwait batted first.

Kuwait’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Kuwait's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 48%).

Biggest swings

19.6: MPP San to Maryyam Ashraf, six by Maryyam Ashraf. Kuwait up from 68% to 79%.
2nd inns 6.1: Maryam Omar to Zon Lin, Zon Lin out. Kuwait up from 70% to 80%.
2nd inns 7.5: Amna Tariq to ZL Win, ZL Win out. Kuwait up from 87% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kuwait125/8 Myanmar98/8

Innings 2

Myanmar

98/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Myanmar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
KM Myatstumped · S Lita D'Sa · Mariamma Hyder 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · S Lita D'Sa · b Mariamma Hyder	2	2	0	0	100.00
HH Aungrun out · Zeefa Jilani · Mariamma Hyder 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Zeefa Jilani	1	2	0	0	50.00
Zon Lincaught and bowled · Maryam Omar 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Maryam Omar	23	19	4	0	121.05
TT Soecaught · Zeefa Jilani · Mariamma Hyder 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zeefa Jilani · b Mariamma Hyder	29	42	2	0	69.05
ZT Kyawbowled · Maryam Omar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Maryam Omar	1	3	0	0	33.33
ZL Win

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mariamma Hyder0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	3
Maria Jasvi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	0	4.00	0
Maryam Omar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	3
Amna Tariq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	0
Zeefa Jilani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/2
2	4	9/2
3	13	22/2
4	6	28/2
5	13	41/2
6	3	44/2
7	4	48/4
8	2	50/5
9	4	54/5
10	3	57/5
11	4	61/5
12	1	62/5
13	1	63/7
14	3	66/7
15	4	70/7
16	5	75/7
17	5	80/7
18	4	84/8
19	5	89/8
20	9	98/8

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