New ZealandversusPakistan

5 Apr 2025 · ODI

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 43 runs

New Zealand42.0 overs264/8 Pakistan40.0 overs221/10 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

70%New Zealand30%Pakistan

Why

New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
On results in ODIs so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,746 vs 1,662 on our results rating)
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Pakistan won 4

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.