ZambiaversusMalawi

15 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Zambia won by 47 runs

Zambia20.0 overs180/9 Malawi20.0 overs133/9 TCA Oval, Blantyre ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malawi more likely to win

24%Zambia76%Malawi

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malawi rate stronger than Zambia (1,453 vs 1,336 on our results rating)
Malawi are playing at home in Malawi
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Malawi won 1 and Zambia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zambia started on 22%; Zambia batted first.

Zambia’s chance of winning (%) · Malawi is the rest

Zambia's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

4.1: D Jakiel to Vasmiakram Chand, Vasmiakram Chand out. Malawi up from 48% to 57%.
2nd inns 1.1: Soyeb Pendi to Salim Patel, Salim Patel out. Zambia up from 62% to 72%.
2nd inns 5.5: Ayaz Dadabhai to SZ Vayani, SZ Vayani out. Zambia up from 69% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zambia180/9 Malawi133/9

Innings 2

Malawi

133/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malawi batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Limdawalacaught · Soyeb Pendi · R Lungu 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Soyeb Pendi · b R Lungu	10	15	1	0	66.67
Salim Patelcaught · Ismail Kara · Soyeb Pendi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ismail Kara · b Soyeb Pendi	2	4	0	0	50.00
SZ Vayanibowled · Ayaz Dadabhai 4 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ayaz Dadabhai	25	17	4	1	147.06
Sami Sohailbowled · R Lungu 1 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b R Lungu	30	24	1	3	125.00
D Kansonkhobowled · Javid Patel 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Javid Patel	28	25	2	1	112.00
Matthew Mount

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ismail Kara1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	2	2.75	1	0
Soyeb Pendi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	27	1	9.00	1	0
Ayaz Dadabhai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	1	6.00	2	0
R Lungu0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	22	3	5.50	0	1
Zakir Husain Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	24	0	12.00	0	0
Javid Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	2	5.75	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	12	17/1
3	5	22/1
4	4	26/1
5	5	31/1
6	8	39/2
7	2	41/3
8	8	49/3
9	7	56/3
10	16	72/3
11	11	83/3
12	9	92/3
13	6	98/3
14	8	106/5
15	3	109/6
16	11	120/6
17	8	128/6
18	1	129/7
19	4	133/8
20	0	133/9

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