ZambiaversusMalawi

15 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Zambia won by 47 runs

Zambia20.0 overs180/9 Malawi20.0 overs133/9 TCA Oval, Blantyre ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malawi more likely to win

24%Zambia76%Malawi

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malawi rate stronger than Zambia (1,453 vs 1,336 on our results rating)
Malawi are playing at home in Malawi
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Malawi won 1 and Zambia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zambia started on 22%; Zambia batted first.

Zambia’s chance of winning (%) · Malawi is the rest

Zambia's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

4.1: D Jakiel to Vasmiakram Chand, Vasmiakram Chand out. Malawi up from 48% to 57%.
2nd inns 1.1: Soyeb Pendi to Salim Patel, Salim Patel out. Zambia up from 62% to 72%.
2nd inns 5.5: Ayaz Dadabhai to SZ Vayani, SZ Vayani out. Zambia up from 69% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zambia180/9 Malawi133/9

Innings 1

Zambia

180/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zambia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vasmiakram Chandcaught · D Kansonkho · Daniel Jackiel 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Kansonkho · b Daniel Jackiel	13	14	2	0	92.86
Ismail Karacaught · M Choamba · Daniel Jackiel 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · M Choamba · b Daniel Jackiel	29	13	2	3	223.08
Shadreck Malamacaught · Matthew Mount · Sami Sohail 2 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Matthew Mount · b Sami Sohail	49	34	2	4	144.12
JV Chandcaught · Matthew Mount · K Thuchila 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Matthew Mount · b K Thuchila	16	15	2	0	106.67
Jakir Patelrun out · A Limdawala, M Choamba · Sami Sohail 1 fours · 2 sixes	run out · A Limdawala, M Choamba	20	19	1	2	105.26

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Daniel Jackiel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	2	8.67	1	0
K Thuchila0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	7	0
B Pondani0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	0	1
Matthew Mount0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0	0
M Choamba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	0	3.50	0	0
Sami Sohail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	3	8.50	0	0
SZ Vayani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/0
3	20	31/0
4	18	49/0
5	5	54/2
6	6	60/2
7	3	63/2
8	13	76/2
9	4	80/2
10	8	88/3
11	9	97/3
12	6	103/3
13	16	119/3
14	17	136/3
15	7	143/3
16	2	145/5
17	2	147/7
18	7	154/8
19	13	167/8
20	13	180/9

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