Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Renegades

11 Nov 2024 · T20

Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 9 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs185/8 Melbourne Renegades17.1 overs186/1 Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 64%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 88% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 12% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.4: D Brown to A Capsey, A Capsey out. Adelaide Strikers up from 53% to 63%.
2nd inns 11.6: D Brown to HK Matthews, four by HK Matthews. Melbourne Renegades up from 37% to 46%.
2nd inns 12.5: A Wellington to HK Matthews, six by HK Matthews. Melbourne Renegades up from 53% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers185/8 Melbourne Renegades186/1

Innings 2

Melbourne Renegades

186/117.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Melbourne Renegades batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Hayley Matthewsnot out 12 fours · 2 sixes	not out	85*	54	12	2	157.41
Courtney Webbretired hurt · Megan Schutt 6 fours · 0 sixes	retired hurt	37*	29	6	0	127.59
Alice Capseycaught · Orla Prendergast · Darcie Brown 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Orla Prendergast · b Darcie Brown	4	3	1	0	133.33
Deandra Dottinnot out7 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Darcie Brown0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	1	10.75	2	0
Megan Schutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	1	0
Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	0	11.00	6	0
Amanda-Jade Wellington0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0	0
Jemma Barsby0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0	0
Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	0	1
Madeline Penna0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	0.1	7	0	42.00	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	6	14/0
3	10	24/0
4	4	28/0
5	9	37/0
6	12	49/0
7	7	56/0
8	9	65/0
9	7	72/0
10	11	83/0
11	11	94/0
12	12	106/1
13	16	122/1
14	12	134/1
15	11	145/1
16	18	163/1
17	16	179/1
18	7	186/1

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.

Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Renegades

Melbourne Renegades won by 9 wickets

How the win chances moved

Biggest swings

Melbourne Renegades

Fall of wickets