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Japan Twenty20 Tri-Series · 2026 · Men
13 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Fiji more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Fiji started on 61%; Fiji batted first.
Fiji's chances ranged from 1% to 82% during the match (South Korea: 18% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peni Vuniwaqabowled · AS Broomfield 2 fours · 6 sixes | bowled · b AS Broomfield | 59 | 44 | 2 | 6 | 134.09 |
| V Veiqravirun out · Balage Dilruksha, Sameera Maduranga · HMHE Parsons 1 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Balage Dilruksha, Sameera Maduranga | 29 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 96.67 |
| J Baleicikoibiabowled · HMHE Parsons 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b HMHE Parsons | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| SM Tupoucaught · Muhammad Nadeem · HMHE Parsons 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Nadeem · b HMHE Parsons | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| N Acaweilbw · HMHE Parsons 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b HMHE Parsons | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| bowled · b HMHE Parsons |
| 8 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 88.89 |
| K Tayagabowled · Muhammad Nadeem 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Nadeem | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| P Dakainivanuabowled · Muhammad Nadeem 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Nadeem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| S Tabuisulucaught · Jun Hyunwoo · HMHE Parsons 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jun Hyunwoo · b HMHE Parsons | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| S Waqabacanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| VM Waqavakatogabowled · HMHE Parsons 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b HMHE Parsons | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 266.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sageer Ahmad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Chamith Ranasinghe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sameera Maduranga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Muhammad Nadeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Daham Madampage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kuldeep Gurjar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sameera Pitabeddara0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| AS Broomfield0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| HMHE Parsons0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 31 | 6 | 8.09 | 5 | 0 |
1-86 (Peni Vuniwaqa, 11.5) · 2-99 (V Veiqravi, 12.3) · 3-100 (J Baleicikoibia, 12.5) · 4-105 (SM Tupou, 14.1) · 5-106 (N Acawei, 14.3) · 6-120 (Metuisela Beitaki, 17.0) · 7-124 (K Tayaga, 17.3) · 8-125 (P Dakainivanua, 18.0) · 9-132 (S Tabuisulu, 19.2) · 10-140 (VM Waqavakatoga, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 15 | 50/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 60/0 |
| 9 | 11 | 71/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 73/0 |
| 11 | 11 | 84/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 13 | 13 | 101/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 105/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 107/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 111/5 |
| 17 | 9 | 120/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 125/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 130/8 |
| 20 | 10 | 140/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.