MI New YorkversusWashington Freedom

13 Jul 2025 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI New York won by 5 runs

MI New York20.0 overs180/7 Washington Freedom20.0 overs175/5 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

MI New York started on 36%; MI New York batted first.

MI New York’s chance of winning (%) · Washington Freedom is the rest

MI New York's chances ranged from 14% to 94% during the match (Washington Freedom: 6% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.3: T Luus to GD Phillips, six by GD Phillips. Washington Freedom up from 48% to 65%.
2nd inns 18.2: TA Boult to GD Phillips, six by GD Phillips. Washington Freedom up from 69% to 86%.
2nd inns 19.3: R Ugarkar to GJ Maxwell, 0 runs to GJ Maxwell. MI New York up from 54% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.