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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
7 Aug 2026 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 74%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Matty Cross · Brandon McMullen 8 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Brandon McMullen | 78 | 65 | 8 | 4 | 120.00 |
| Matthew Spoorscaught · Zainullah Ihsan · Jasper John Davidson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zainullah Ihsan · b Jasper John Davidson | 9 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Pargat Singhlbw · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brandon McMullen | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
| Harsh Thakerbowled · Brandon McMullen 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brandon McMullen | 23 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 44.23 |
| Nicholas Kirtonrun out · Matty Cross, Mark Watt · Mark Watt 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matty Cross, Mark Watt | 16 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 88.89 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 37% to 97% during the match (Canada: 3% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Oliver Davidson |
| 22 |
| 34 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 64.71 |
| Meet Patelcaught · Brandon McMullen · Oliver Davidson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Oliver Davidson | 11 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarnot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 40* | 40 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Ansh Patelrun out · O Jones, Matty Cross · Zainullah Ihsan 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · O Jones, Matty Cross | 41 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 128.13 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sanabowled · Zainullah Ihsan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zainullah Ihsan | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Zahid Shirzadcaught · George Munsey · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Safyaan Sharif | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 14 · wides: 11 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper John Davidson0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 5 | 1 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 4.30 | 1 | 1 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 3.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.2 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 5.04 | 3 | 0 |
| Zainullah Ihsan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Oliver Davidson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-32 (Matthew Spoors, 4.3) · 2-49 (Pargat Singh, 7.2) · 3-130 (YS Samra, 23.2) · 4-133 (Harsh Thaker, 25.3) · 5-153 (Nicholas Kirton, 29.1) · 6-180 (Meet Patel, 36.2) · 7-181 (Shreyas Movva, 37.0) · 8-265 (Ansh Patel, 48.1) · 9-267 (Kaleem Sana, 48.4) · 10-272 (Zahid Shirzad, 49.2)
Recorded target: 282 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 16 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 48/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 61/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 68/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 69/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 71/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 79/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 81/2 |
| 17 | 14 | 95/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 96/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 100/2 |
| 20 | 10 | 110/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 117/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 125/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 130/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 131/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 132/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 134/4 |
| 27 | 9 | 143/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 146/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 152/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 154/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 158/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 161/5 |
| 33 | 11 | 172/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 173/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 175/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 179/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 181/7 |
| 38 | 6 | 187/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 191/7 |
| 40 | 7 | 198/7 |
| 41 | 9 | 207/7 |
| 42 | 8 | 215/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 217/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 223/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 231/7 |
| 46 | 13 | 244/7 |
| 47 | 10 | 254/7 |
| 48 | 10 | 264/7 |
| 49 | 6 | 270/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 272/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
