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Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
6 Dec 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught and bowled · Brydon Carse3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Brydon Carse | 24 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 68.57 |
| Devon Conwaybowled · Chris Woakes 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chris Woakes | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Ollie Pope · Chris Woakes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Chris Woakes | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 |
| caught · Ollie Pope · b Brydon Carse |
| 6 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Ollie Pope · Gus Atkinson 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Gus Atkinson | 32 | 70 | 4 | 0 | 45.71 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Ben Duckett · Shoaib Bashir13 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Shoaib Bashir | 115 | 102 | 13 | 5 | 112.75 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsbowled · Shoaib Bashir 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shoaib Bashir | 16 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 145.45 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Ollie Pope · Ben Stokes 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Ben Stokes | 42 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 82.35 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Jacob Bethell · Ben Stokes1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Ben Stokes | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Chris Woakes · Ben Stokes1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chris Woakes · b Ben Stokes | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 12.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 5.67 | 0 | 2 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 11.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 4.82 | 0 | 2 |
| Shoaib Bashir2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 2 | 110 | 2 | 5.79 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Devon Conway, 2.1) · 2-25 (Kane Williamson, 7.0) · 3-33 (Tom Latham, 9.2) · 4-59 (Rachin Ravindra, 14.0) · 5-106 (Daryl Mitchell, 31.2) · 6-141 (Glenn Phillips, 35.0) · 7-237 (Tom Blundell, 48.3) · 8-247 (Matt Henry, 50.4) · 9-254 (Nathan Smith, 52.3) · 10-259 (Tim Southee, 54.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 30/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 38/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 45/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 48/3 |
| 13 | 9 | 57/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 59/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 16 | 11 | 71/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 71/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 72/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 76/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 78/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 82/4 |
| 22 | 0 | 82/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 85/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 85/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 86/4 |
| 26 | 5 | 91/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 97/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 97/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 101/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 110/5 |
| 33 | 11 | 121/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 129/5 |
| 35 | 12 | 141/6 |
| 36 | 4 | 145/6 |
| 37 | 10 | 155/6 |
| 38 | 9 | 164/6 |
| 39 | 6 | 170/6 |
| 40 | 8 | 178/6 |
| 41 | 10 | 188/6 |
| 42 | 6 | 194/6 |
| 43 | 0 | 194/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 199/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 208/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 215/6 |
| 47 | 11 | 226/6 |
| 48 | 5 | 231/6 |
| 49 | 10 | 241/7 |
| 50 | 5 | 246/7 |
| 51 | 1 | 247/8 |
| 52 | 4 | 251/8 |
| 53 | 3 | 254/9 |
| 54 | 4 | 258/9 |
| 55 | 1 | 259/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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