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Pakistan tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Men
28 Nov 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 73%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joylord Gumbiecaught · Tayyab Tahir · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tayyab Tahir · b Saim Ayub | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanilbw · Abrar Ahmed 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abrar Ahmed | 24 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Dion Myerscaught · Faisal Akram · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Faisal Akram · b Saim Ayub | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Craig Ervinebowled · Aamer Jamal5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Aamer Jamal | 51 | 63 | 5 | 1 | 80.95 |
 Sean Williams |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Haris Rauf |
| 24 |
| 29 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 82.76 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Abdullah Shafique · Aamer Jamal1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdullah Shafique · b Aamer Jamal | 16 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 64.00 |
|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Abrar Ahmed 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Abrar Ahmed | 37 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 137.04 |
|---|
 Clive Madandelbw · Haris Rauf1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Haris Rauf | 20 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Faraz Akramcaught · Abdullah Shafique · Kamran Ghulam 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdullah Shafique · b Kamran Ghulam | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravabowled · Faisal Akram 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Faisal Akram | 17 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 106.25 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 4.71 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 45 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 4.74 | 0 | 0 |
| Aamer Jamal1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Faisal Akram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 6.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamran Ghulam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Joylord Gumbie, 2.1) · 2-10 (Dion Myers, 2.5) · 3-49 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 9.0) · 4-90 (Sean Williams, 17.5) · 5-123 (Craig Ervine, 25.5) · 6-130 (Sikandar Raza, 27.5) · 7-170 (Brian Bennett, 33.5) · 8-175 (Faraz Akram, 34.5) · 9-204 (Richard Ngarava, 40.0) · 10-204 (Clive Madande, 40.1)
Recorded target: 304 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 14/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 44/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 49/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 56/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 62/3 |
| 13 | 11 | 73/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 81/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 89/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 90/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 90/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 96/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 101/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 105/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 107/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 109/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 116/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 123/5 |
| 27 | 6 | 129/5 |
| 28 | 4 | 133/6 |
| 29 | 3 | 136/6 |
| 30 | 8 | 144/6 |
| 31 | 0 | 144/6 |
| 32 | 15 | 159/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 162/6 |
| 34 | 9 | 171/7 |
| 35 | 4 | 175/8 |
| 36 | 8 | 183/8 |
| 37 | 6 | 189/8 |
| 38 | 3 | 192/8 |
| 39 | 9 | 201/8 |
| 40 | 3 | 204/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 204/10 |
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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