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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
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United States of America Women tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Women
20 Oct 2024 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 38%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gargi Bhoglecaught · Josephine Nkomo · Nomvelo Sibanda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josephine Nkomo · b Nomvelo Sibanda | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| D Dhingrabowled · Josephine Nkomo 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 39 | 58 | 7 | 0 | 67.24 |
| Anika Kolancaught · Modester Mupachikwa · Nomvelo Sibanda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b Nomvelo Sibanda | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
| Ella Claridgecaught · Sharne Mayers · L Mabhero 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sharne Mayers · b L Mabhero | 18 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 64.29 |
 Sindhu Sriharsharun out · Modester Mupachikwa, Nomvelo Sibanda · Sharne Mayers7 fours · 0 sixes |
United States of America's chances ranged from 1% to 74% during the match (Zimbabwe: 26% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Modester Mupachikwa, Nomvelo Sibanda |
| 69 |
| 76 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 90.79 |
| AI Chudasamacaught · Audrey Mazvishaya · Christabel Chatonzwa 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Audrey Mazvishaya · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 41 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 82.00 |
|---|
| Isani Vaghelabowled · Josephine Nkomo 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 20 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Tara Norriscaught · Ashley Ndiraya · Audrey Mazvishaya4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashley Ndiraya · b Audrey Mazvishaya | 28 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 121.74 |
|---|
| Ritu Singhrun out · Modester Mupachikwa, Chipo Mugeri · Audrey Mazvishaya 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Modester Mupachikwa, Chipo Mugeri | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Geetika Kodalinot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 6 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| S Immadibowled · Nomvelo Sibanda 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nomvelo Sibanda | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomvelo Sibanda0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.24 | 4 | 0 |
| Josephine Nkomo1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 2 | 3.60 | 4 | 0 |
| Audrey Mazvishaya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
| L Mabhero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.71 | 0 | 0 |
| B Biza0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Christabel Chatonzwa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| R Pasipanodya0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sharne Mayers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Gargi Bhogle, 0.3) · 2-12 (Anika Kolan, 4.4) · 3-39 (Ella Claridge, 12.2) · 4-100 (D Dhingra, 22.4) · 5-150 (Sindhu Sriharsha, 32.5) · 6-199 (AI Chudasama, 41.4) · 7-213 (Isani Vaghela, 44.1) · 8-235 (Tara Norris, 47.3) · 9-236 (Ritu Singh, 47.5) · 10-248 (S Immadi, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 13/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 20/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 31/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 31/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 38/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 46/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 61/3 |
| 17 | 10 | 71/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 85/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 91/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 91/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 97/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 100/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 105/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 108/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 111/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 11 | 124/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 131/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 134/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 138/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 144/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 150/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 158/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 161/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 165/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 169/5 |
| 38 | 9 | 178/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 183/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 190/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 197/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 201/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 203/6 |
| 44 | 10 | 213/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 217/7 |
| 46 | 5 | 222/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 231/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 237/9 |
| 49 | 9 | 246/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 248/10 |
Tara Norris: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sindhu Sriharsha: Hong Kong Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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