BhutanversusMaldives

10 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Bhutan won by 94 runs

Bhutan20.0 overs124/8 Maldives18.1 overs30/10 Selangor Turf Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

62%Bhutan38%Maldives

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Maldives (1,358 vs 1,274 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 58%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Maldives is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Maldives: 0% to 43%).

Biggest swings

3.3: Aishath Meesa Rameez to N Choden, N Choden out. Maldives up from 34% to 39%.
7.4: Latsha Haleemath to Y Choden, Y Choden out. Maldives up from 36% to 41%.
19.6: Latsha Haleemath to Sonam, Sonam out. Bhutan up from 84% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan124/8 Maldives30/10

Innings 2

Maldives

30/1018.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Maldives batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nabaa Naseembowled · Anju Gurung 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Anju Gurung	0	3	0	0	0.00
Sajaa Fathimathbowled · Anju Gurung 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Anju Gurung	1	11	0	0	9.09
Latsha Haleemathlbw · Anju Gurung 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Anju Gurung	0	1	0	0	0.00
Sumayya Abdulcaught · Anju Gurung · Y Choden 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Anju Gurung · b Y Choden	15	56	2	0	26.79
Fathimath Malhacaught · Y Choden · T Zangmo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Y Choden · b T Zangmo	1	6	0	0	16.67
Hamza Niyaz

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Anju Gurung2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	6	3	1.50	1
Anjuli Ghalley1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	2	0	1.00	1
T Zangmo1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	2	2.50	2
N Choden1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	5	3	1.25	1
Sonam0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	2
D Wangmo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	2	0	1.00	1
Y Choden0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.1	0	3	2	2.57	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/2
2	2	2/2
3	0	2/3
4	0	2/3
5	1	3/3
6	0	3/4
7	2	5/4
8	4	9/4
9	1	10/4
10	4	14/4
11	2	16/4
12	2	18/4
13	0	18/7
14	2	20/8
15	5	25/8
16	1	26/8
17	3	29/9
18	1	30/9
19	0	30/10

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